Elections may be a few months away, but the government may get into election mode much earlier than that, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates on hold at 7.50 per cent.
After hiking the repo rate by 0.50 per cent, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said future policy actions by the central bank will be guided by the evolving conditions. Addressing a press conference, the governor said the RBI has changed the policy stance to drop the phrase "remains accommodative", and instead opted for "withdrawal of accommodation" for guiding its future moves. The central bank did not hike the cash reserve ratio contrary to speculation, he said, adding that the liquidity withdrawal will be calibrated and measured.
If oil prices rise, the government would face an uncomfortable political decision.
Firms that should borrow abroad do not do so enough, and those that should not borrow abroad do.
On growth, the Governor said the prospects in the last few months have improved.
Moody's listed six agenda on the list of pending reforms -- land acquisition Bill, labour law reforms, significant infrastructure investment, tangible benefit from Make in India initiative, tax administration and PSU bank reforms
As the MPC is mandated to target CPI inflation rate at 4 plus minus 2 per cent, any measurement error in CPI is likely to have grave consequences for monetary policy.
Analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch said that fears of inflation getting "generalised" are overdone, as only two sub-categories of fuel and light and housing (accounting for 22 per cent of the basket) have seen a price-rise above the headline 5.2 per cent.
Modi will also need to reconcile market demands with those from forces within his own administration
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
Strong performance by its US subsidiary Novelis and better returns in the copper business helped Hindalco Industries post consolidated revenue growth of 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54,100 crore in the July-September quarter of 2023-23 (Q2FY24). Novelis' Flat Rolled Products (FRP) volumes grew 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 933,000 tonnes (down 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on better North American and European volumes. The consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,610 crore despite lower input costs in India and better Novelis performance.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
Factory output, measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production, showed an improvement mainly because of an uptick in mining and manufacturing production and larger offtake of capital goods.
RBI's surprise rate cut has revived sentiments of India Inc.
She has shown shrewdness, sensitivity, and courage. All of these will be needed in ample quantities for the real challenge that will emerge after the elections, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
'It's important that every portfolio is well diversified.' 'My own portfolio is diversified across asset classes: 50% is in equity funds, 15% in international schemes, 25% in debt funds and 10% in sovereign gold bonds.'
Will seek to bring inflation to the mid-point: Rajan
Citi, HSBC and UBS etc have already cut their market targets.
Raghuram Rajan is correct -- the RBI's monetary response to inflation in the past has been too weak.
Rating agency ICRA said on Tuesday that a remarkable aspect of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary and Credit Policy for the First Half of 2004-05 is its timing.
India's economy is not like Western ones, and thus needs restrained fiscal policy even during a recession, says Ajay Shah.
The year 2015 is turning out to be very different from 2014.
NITI Aayog has not said what the reasons were for having achieved or not having achieved what was sought to be achieved, or what lessons can be learned for the future, points out Aakar Patel.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
'If he has not achieved 'Congress mukt Bharat' even now, the question of his creating a 'DMK mukt Tamil Nadu' does not arise,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot on Thursday exchanged jibes over the red diary that a sacked state minister claims records financial misdeeds of the CM and his colleagues.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
Inflation target remains 5% for January 2017.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC, speaks about a range of issues ranging from inflation, to how Goods and Services Tax and land acquisition bills can help India hit double digit growth, and her impressions about economic growth in the last one year after Narendra Modi took over as India's Prime Minister.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Saturday exhorted banks to reduce their lending rates to push credit demand in laggard segments, saying banks have benefited from influx of low-cost deposits and its previous repo rate cuts.
The Foreign Trade Policy Supplement released by the commerce ministry on Friday extended the (Duty Entitlement Pass book) DEPB scheme till May 2009. The exports for 2007-08 will exceed $155 billion, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said. The government has set an export target of $200 billion for the year 2008-09.
The banking sector in the country is stable, capital is available and credit offtake is poised to take off, he said at a webinar organised by Bharat Chamber of Commerce. "We are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic.
Delivering a public speech hours after the RBI launched a rescue act for Yes Bank on March 6, Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the RBI's affirmation to do whatever was needed to combat the coronavirus impact. On that day, India had only one confirmed COVID-19 infection, the World Health Organisation was five days off from declaring it as a pandemic and the financially debilitating lockdowns were not even on the horizon. Das' promise on efforts to mitigate COVID-19 impact appeared as a footnote in news reports from the event.
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
In policy review meet in June, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept interest rates intact.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
